Old Dominion vs. UL-Monroe: Preview and Prediction

By David Asbury

Cusp of Bowl Eligibility on the Black Bayou
The 5-3 (2-2) Old Dominion Monarchs travel all the way to Monroe, Louisiana, to face the 3-5 (1-3) ULM Warhawks.  The Monarchs have never faced ULM before and this trip will be this year's lone excursion to a SBC West stadium.   ULM is not a historically good team and have been a punching bag for much of the league.  The Warhawks have not been to a bowl game since 2012.  Despite that, Monroe is a notoriously difficult place to travel to and SBC East teams have struggled when doing so. App. State nearly avoided a big upset there in 2023 and the Warhawks did upset JMU in 2024.  ODU needs to avoid a similar fate if they want to extend their 5-1 record against SBC West teams.

Although historically bad, Head Coach Bryant Vincent (15-18 all time) has the team moving in the right direction.  Vegas predicted this team to win only 1.5 wins in 2024.  Vincent smashed those expectations going 5-7, their best record in years.  This year, they had hoped to get over the hump and go bowling but the program is having some problems.  There are some alleged financial difficulties which led to their AD resigning.  Vincent, who was already the head coach and the offensive coordinator, is now also the interim athletic director.  Call him Mr. Warhawk.  That is a lot of hats to wear and you can see the team struggle on the field for it.  After starting the season 3-1 with a big win over Ark. State, the Warhawks are now on a four-game losing streak and it has not been pretty.

There is a large question mark at who exactly will play under center against the Monarchs.  The Warhawks are usually led by quarterback Aiden Armenta, who has eight passing touchdowns to six interceptions on the season while sporting a pretty low 5.8 yards per attempt.  He is not a great runner averaging 1.2 yards per carry.  But he had (and may still have) an undisclosed injury, so he did not suit up last week.  Backup Hunter Herring (1 td and 1 int on 8 attempts in 2025) also was out with an injury.  So the Warhawks turned to reserve Landon Graves for his first start against Southern Miss. last week.  He was less than spectacular completing 12 for 26 attempts for 103 yards and one touchdown and two interceptions.  No matter who the Warhawks have under center, the Monarchs should just focus on executing their assignments and good things will happen.

The offense in general has been pretty bad gaining only 323.9 yards per game (13th in SBC) and 17.3 points per game (last in SBC, 7th to last in FBS).  The passing game is suffering with poor quarterback play. They are averaging only 150.6 passing yards per game (12th in SBC) and are tied with the Monarchs and Mountaineers with the second most interceptions in the Sun Belt (9).    However, ULM's offensive line is playing well in pass protection and have given up the fewest sacks this season (10).  The running game is also a highlight for this team gaining 173.3 yards per game (7th in SBC) and 4.9 yards per carry (5th in SBC).  Running back Braylon McReynolds is having a great season with 473 yards, 5.8 yards per carry and two touchdowns.  The other back, Zach Palmer-Smith has 355 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, and two touchdowns.  It is abundantly clear that this is a run-first offense.   Old Dominion must load the box and stop the run to force them to pass.  ODU has allowed 179.1 rushing yards per game which is about average in the league (8th in SBC).  They need to do better in this department in Monroe.  Expect big games from safeties Jeremy Mack and Jerome Carter coming up to stop the run.

The ULM Warhawks have hung their hat on their defense.  The D allows 388.1 yards per game (7th in SBC) but 33.1 points per game (12th in SBC).  That is a pretty big discrepancy so what is happening here?  Well, with the poor offense and special teams, opponents are having short fields to score and this ULM defense is allowing them to score.  They allow the most passing touchdowns in the conference with 19 and allow a lot of yards in the air with 243.4 passing yards per game (11th in SBC).  Like App. State last week, the Warhawks have a weak spot at corner. But the defense actually does have some talent.  They can stop the run pretty well allowing 144.8 yards per game (4th in SBC).  ULM Linebacker Noah Flemmings is cleaning up the running game with 44 tackles.  He also has 2 sacks, and a forced fumble and recovery.  The Warhawks best unit might just be the linebacker/safeties who are capable of crashing down and limiting teams on the ground.  What that means for the Monarchs is quarterback Colton Joseph needs to have a full playbook, opening up the pass and run.  He is fully capable of that.  This is another team where he can have a very big day against.  

ULM pass break up. Photo attributed to U.S. Army (Public Domain)

I do not usually write about opponents' special teams units but the Warhawks' special teams unit is playing pretty poorly.  They are second to last in the country in punt return yards (8.6) and field goal percentage (2-6, 33%).  The ULM punting game also struggles with only 34.0 net yards per attempt (6th worst in FBS) giving other teams short fields to work with.  If you have been complaining about ODU's special teams lately (and there has been a lot to complain about) just know that Kelly Sports ranks' ODU's special teams higher than ULM's which ranks the worst in FBS. 

Overall, this could be a long last 4 weeks of the season for the Warhawks.  Last season, Vincent had a hot 5-1 start to the season and then dropped the last six games to finish 5-7 and missed a bowl game for the twelfth straight season.  He had a similar 3-1 start this season and is already on a four-game losing streak, leading to a disappointing 3-5 record.  They will not be favored to win any of the remaining four games on their schedule so winning three of the last four to reach a bowl game looks like a tall task.  This is exacerbated by their injuries at quarterback as well as up and down the roster. They have 22 athletes listed on this week's availability report, with 13 of them being out or doubtful.  The Warhawks are very likely in the middle of their 13th season in a row where they miss a bowl game.  Being head coach, offensive coordinator, and interim athletic director may be more work than Bryant Vincent can chew. But that's asking a lot of anyone.

Prediction:  Old Dominion 38, ULM 21
Last week was sloppy but we all correctly predicted an Old Dominion win.  Mike, Gary, and Vegas improve to 6-2.  Aaron, the Monarchs and myself are right behind at 5-3.  I really want to beat Vegas for the third straight season but I am losing opportunities to do so with us agreeing so often.  ODU will probably be favored in every game going forward although the Troy Thursday Night Game might be a very close spread.  Here, some sportsbooks opened the spread as high as favoring ODU by 17 points.  That line has come down some but not by much.  As expected, we are all picking our beloved Monarchs to win and likely win big.

It may not be that easy though.  When the Monarchs travel to Atlanta to play Georgia State, the flight is easy with Delta's hub, the hotel is close by to everything, and the hotel is usually very nice.  The team comes out well-rested and ready to play.  Monroe is the exact opposite of that.  The airport is far, hotel options are limited, and the stadium has an away team's locker room that is painstakingly small.  It gives the Warhawks an interesting homefield advantage, one they should take pride in.  Just ask other SBC East teams how they liked the travel.  ODU needs to go in with the right mindset.  This is not a "business trip" with a fancy flight and hotel.  This is a Lewis & Clark expedition to explore the Louisiana Purchase.  Get ready to get dirty in the Black Bayou and don't you dare complain about the mosquitoes.

But if we are just looking at talent?  Old Dominion is miles ahead.  Monroe cannot pass the ball on offense.  Monroe cannot stop the pass on defense.  They can run the ball on the ground a bit.  They can stop the run a bit.  But they cannot do it all game and their run game numbers are average at best.  It also says a lot that their special teams is more consistently bad than ODU's special teams this season.  Quarterback Colton Joseph should have a very big game.  The ODU pass defense should come up with big stops and turnovers.  If the Monarchs are capable of stopping the run on defense they can make this game get ugly fast.

And you know what else is on the line?  BOWL ELIGIBILITY!  ODU can clinch their sixth win of the season to go to their third bowl game in Rahne's fifth season.  The Monarchs must win one of their last four games to do it and the easiest match may just be this one.  Get ready to buy a "Bowl Bound" t-shirt and looking up flights to Orlando, Boca Raton, New Orleans, Myrtle Beach, Mobile, Birmingham, and more options for December.  But first, do not miss this game this Saturday at the Afterglow Watch Party!  Reign on!