App. State vs. Old Dominion: Preview and Prediction

By David Asbury

Homecoming with the 'Neers 
The Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-3) travel to Norfolk to face the Old Dominion Monarchs (4-3) on Homecoming weekend.  The Monarchs are 1-4 against the Mountaineers all-time, only defeating them the last time they traveled to Norfolk in '23. Now both teams are coming off their second conference loss and are just clamoring to get back in the win column and reach bowl eligibility.

Keshawn Wicks (22) leaps into the end zone to secure ODU's sole win against Appalachian State in 2023.  Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography

App. State is led by first year head coach Dowell Loggains.  Loggains came to Boone from South Carolina where he was the offensive coordinator against Blake Seiler's defense in a 23-19 win to start the 2024 season.  Now, App. State fans expect him to bring them back to competing for Sun Belt Championships.  However, in year one, they will settle for bowl eligibility if he can muster it.  With four wins down, they need to find two more wins on a schedule that appears tougher in the back half with ODU, Marshall and JMU included on the docket. To this point, they have had a relatively easy schedule with wins against Charlotte (1-6), Lindenwood (FCS), Oregon State (1-7) and Georgia State (1-6).  None of which would qualify as a statement win.  Their losses include Boise State (5-2), USM (5-2) and Coastal Carolina (4-3). The same Chanticleers who ODU blew out 47-7 a few weeks ago but have since changed their quarterback and found some success.

Much like Coastal, Loggains also made a change at quarterback for App.  After starting the season with LSU-transfer AJ Swann, he decided to switch to the very tall, Iowa State-transfer, JJ Kohl.  Swann threw too many interceptions, throwing six in three games.  So JJ Kohl got the nod and has started the last three games, leading them 2 wins over Oregon State and Georgia State and last week's loss to Coastal Carolina.  Kohl has played much better than Swann throwing 841 yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 60% completion percentage.  He averages a very good 8.0 yards per attempt.  But is Kohl really good or is he a benefactor of an easier schedule?  At this point it is just too hard to tell.  The good news is he is not much of a running quarterback with only 27 rushing yards and a single score on the ground.  The Monarchs have historically struggled against dual threat quarterbacks under Rahne and we were all reminded of that weakness over the last two weeks against Marshall's Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and JMU's Alonza Barnett. 

Hopefully, the Monarchs' defense can have a get-right game against a quarterback who is not known for making plays with his legs.

The App. State offense has been clicking, gaining 420.3 yards per game (4th in SBC) with the current best passing attack in the Sun Belt (277.9 yards per game, 1st in SBC).  They have a lot of weapons at receiver including Dalton Stroman and Jaden Barnes. Tight end Izayah Cummings is having his best year of his college career, catching 33 balls for 356 yards.  The ODU defense cannot focus on any particular receiver as they are all getting the ball often. 

The running game is not as explosive, averaging only 4.1 yards per carry (142.4 yards per game, 10th in SBC). Though lead back Rushod Dubinion is having a great season and currently is at the top of the Sun Belt in rushing yards with 705 on the season.  Overall, this O likes to keep the ball moving in the air and does that pretty damn well but can make plays on the ground when needed.  

The passing game is clicking and so is the App. State defense.  They are only allowing 363.3 yards per game (4th in SBC) and only 28.1 points per game (4th in SBC).  The run defense has been very stout with only 108.4 rushing yards per game (2nd in SBC).  But the pass defense has been an Achilles' heel allowing 254.9 yards per game (13th in SBC).  There are positives in the pass defense in that they have eight interceptions and 17 sacks.  But they are allowing a lot of movement through the air.  The corners are a weak spot on this unit.  Marshall and JMU had the talent to load the box to stop the run and leave their corners on islands.  App. State's corners may not have that talent and it could lead for a very good day for ODU's Joseph and his top receivers Gladding and Brown.  But the offensive line needs to hold up to avoid sacks and Joseph needs to clean up his interception problem.

On paper, this is not the matchup the Monarchs would have hoped for after the past two weeks.  Marshall and JMU both committed to stopping the run and it embarrassed our offense.  Is App. State capable of doing the same and stopping the run?  Or did they just face struggling teams like Charlotte and Georgia State which is skewing their stats on both sides of the ball?  Last week, Coastal Carolina had no problem running on this defense gaining 246 rushing yards and four touchdowns.  A lot of that was with a running quarterback and we all know what Colton Joseph can do with his legs.  The Monarchs need to run and pass the ball well to win and they can do so.

App. State team is not the power house that they once were.  It is a rebuilding year for them and their 4-3 record looks good enough for a first year coach.  They are capable of beating the Monarchs.  They can copy JMU and Marshall's playbook and their run defense looks good enough to do it on paper.  But their four wins come from some pretty lackluster teams.  To top that off, the loss to Coastal Carolina at home is a giant black eye on the Mountaineers' resume.  The schedule is about to get a lot more difficult with ODU, Marshall, JMU, rival Georgia Southern, and even Ark. State.  Frankly, they should be ecstatic if they can get two more wins and go bowling.

Prediction:  Old Dominion 31, App. State 24

Alright, I threw the dice on my Monarchs last week and they let me down.  Vegas and Gary were right and now there is a three way tie between Vegas, Mike, and Gary for first place at 5-2.  Aaron, the Monarchs, and I are trailing at 4-3.  Vegas opened favoring the Monarchs by 11 points but that line has moved up to 13.5 points as I write this. This week, Aaron and Mike officially did not make a pick but outlined how ODU can win (editor's note: Mike picked ODU to win - signed Mike).  Meanwhile Gary and I are in agreement that ODU will win but App. State should cover.

I am a little scared of my pick.  ODU burned me badly the past two weeks.  I started this article thinking I was going to pick App. State after the two duds against JMU and Marshall.  App. State's defense looks like they may be able to cause another dud for the Monarchs and their offense can fly the ball through the air like no one else in the Sun Belt.  ODU also had a lot of turnover problems that go all the way back to the App. State game in North Carolina last year.  If the Monarchs win this game, it will be because they stopped turning the ball over so damn often.

But I was swayed back to the Monarchs for a lot of reasons.  First, the Monarchs are back at home in the Castle for a much needed home game.  The past two ugly losses were both on the road.  Second, the Mountaineers do not have a dual threat quarterback.  The past two ugly losses were against teams with dual threats stars under center.  Finally, and most importantly, the Mountaineers have great stats and wins against a lot of bad teams.   The Mountaineers have not defeated a team that has a single win against another FBS opponent.  They have lost decidedly to the two good teams they've faced (Boise State and USM) while also losing to Coastal Carolina at home who the Monarchs blew out.  App. State looks great on paper but they have not beat a team like the Monarchs, you know, a team that has more than one win on the season or a team that beat an FBS team or three.  The Monarchs take it and I may have even convinced myself that they might even cover...but not really.

Reign on and have a happy Homecoming!