By David Asbury
The Fifth Battle of the Beaches
The 3-1 Old Dominion Monarchs open conference play at home against the 2-2 (1-0) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. The Chants are coming off of a bye week after upsetting the South Alabama Jaguars 38-20. This game will be the fifth meeting between these teams going back to the 2012 FCS Playoffs where Taylor Heinicke and company defeated CCU. But recently, the Monarchs have not played as well in the series and are on a two game losing streak. This match will be the series tiebreaker as both teams are 2-2.
The Chants are led by third-year head coach Tim Beck who found mixed results in his first two seasons. In 2023, his team won the Hawaii Bowl in a successful 8-5 campaign. In 2024, his team made it to the Myrtle Beach Bowl but were throttled to end the season with a sour 6-7 record. This year, the Chants have had a lot of roster and coaching staff turnover. The Beach Chickens may have an even record, but they have not looked very good so far. Both Virginia and East Carolina mangled them with a combined score of 86-7. Then the Chants just barely defeated their FCS opponent, Charleston Southern, in an ugly 13-0 match. It is worth noting that Charleston Southern is not a good FCS program, they are 2-15 since the start of the 2024 season. It is frankly a big surprise they upset the South Alabama Jaguars like they did. It is by far their best performance of the year.
After experimenting with Maryland-transfer MJ Morris under center, the Chants returned to Tad Hudson at quarterback. Hudson started in the Myrtle Beach Bowl last season where they got throttled on their home teal turf. This season, Hudson started against the blowout loss to East Carolina and the upset victory over South Alabama. He struggled mightily against ECU with two interceptions, no scores, and a putrid 48.7% completion percentage. He turned it around against South Alabama throwing two touchdowns and scored another on the run. But it was still not a stellar performance averaging only 4.4 yards per attempt and a QBR of 46.3. He scored, but outside of those three plays, he struggled to find consistency. Indeed, the entire Coastal Carolina offense is struggling. It is the Sun Belt's worst, averaging 292.8 yards per game and only 14.5 points per game. The passing offense is struggling to get any traction only netting 146.5 yards per game.
There is hope running the ball. Running back Ja'vin Simpkins is blossoming as the impact player. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and scored twice. Freshman Dominic Knicely is also running the ball well averaging 6.3 yards per carry. It was the running game that helped defeat the Jaguars averaging 5.9 yards per carry and gaining 182 rushing yards. They will need to lean on the running game and start playing game manager football if they expect to win more games. On the Monarch's side of the ball, the key to beating this offense will be stopping the run and forcing Hudson to pass the ball. The Monarchs are capable of doing so. They average 184.5 rushing yards allowed per game this season (8th in SBC), but this stat is skewed by the Indiana game where the Monarchs allowed 309 rushing yards. If they play as they did against Virginia Tech or Liberty, it will be a very long day for Coastal's offense.
CCU's defense is playing much better than their offense but it's not lighting the World on fire either. It is an average Sun Belt defense allowing 381 yards per game (9th in SBC) and 26.5 points per game (6th in SBC). Unsurprisingly, veteran linebacker Shane Bruce is leading the unit it tackles (27). He is flying all over the field and is potentially the best linebacker in the Sun Belt after Jason Henderson's retirement. He will have his hands full trying to stop the Monarchs' top rushing offense (238.3 rushing yards per game, 2nd in SBC).
The Chants' defensive line is struggling to get to the quarterback with only five sacks on the season. The ODU offense is excelling right now and should be able to handle its own against this average SBC defense. With the mediocre pass rush, Colton Joseph will have time to make plays.
Shane Bruce (1) recorded 75 tackles in 2024, 52 in 2023. Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have not looked very good thus far. Before upsetting South Alabama, they looked like the worst in the Sun Belt. Even the South Alabama upset comes with some caveats. USA's quarterback Bishop Davenport gave the Chants three turnovers, setting them up all game and giving them short field on 2 occassions. The Jaguars actually had the higher EPA that game. So what is the problem at the beach? In a word: offense. The Chants are struggling to pass the ball with any consistency whether it is MJ Morris or Tad Hudson under center. The team is averaging a very low 4.6 yards per passing attempt. The running game and defense are not as weak but it is just not strong enough to carry this team to that many victories. Frankly, they are expected to struggle in conference play and Tim Beck may not be there next year if they do.
Prediction: ODU 31, CCU 7
All of the Monarchists and Vegas rightfully predicted an ODU win against that team from Lynchburg. Mike remains the leader at 4-0, while the rest of us including Vegas and the Monarchs themselves are 3-1. This week we are all continuing to ride with the Monarchs to continue the win streak. Vegas opened the spread favoring the Monarchs by 14 points but the line moved significantly in ODU's favor since then as high as 20.5 points.
Coastal is just not a good Sun Belt team this season. The offense is weak. The defense is average. The Monarchs look better in nearly every aspect of the game and they are at home playing at The Castle. Expect the ODU defense to light up the Chants. Expect the Monarchs offensive line to keep Joseph clean and give him opportunities to make a lot of plays. Expect a win. Expect the Monarchs to cover. Reign on!
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