Cure Bowl - ODU vs. USF: Preview and Prediction

By David Asbury

Paint it Pink!
The 9-3 Old Dominion Monarchs will head down to sunny Orlando, Florida to face the 9-3 South Florida Bulls in this year's Cure Bowl.  No, Robert Smith did not sponsor a bowl game.  The Cure Bowl is so named to promote awareness and research for breast cancer, with proceeds going to the Breast Cancer Research Foundation.  This is about as good of a bowl game as ODU could hope for.  The location is great.  The weather will be great.  The Orlando theme parks are great.  The opponent is great.  But most importantly, the bowl game serves a much greater purpose than just football and vacations.

As already stated, the South Florida Bulls are a great opponent for the Monarchs.  USF is located in nearby Tampa, Florida and hail from the American Athletic Conference (the "AAC").  It will be a first time meeting between the teams but ODU strives to improve its record against the AAC after losses to members East Carolina and Tulsa in recent years.  Defeating USF will be a tall task and help the Sun Belt's standing when compared to its main G5 competition in the AAC.  Sun Belt schools will root for Old Dominion against a top peer-conference opponent.

The Bulls are a very good team with a 9-3 record only losing very close games to Miami, Memphis, and Navy.  They also have some very impressive wins against North Texas, Florida, and Boise State.  But there will be some shakeup within their ranks.  The Bulls were led by head coach Alex Golesh (23-15).  However, Golesh was one of four AAC coaches P4'$ hired away.  Alex Golesh will coach the Auburn Tigers next season and already left USF.  Offensive coordinator Joel Gordon has followed Golesh there as well.  Indeed, the coaches for quarterbacks, receivers, and offensive line have left the building.  If the Bulls look a little shaky at the Cure Bowl, it is understandable.  However, this is a veteran squad loaded with seniors and grads at the top of their game.  It is possible they do not miss a beat.

To replace Golesh, South Florida hired Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline.  Hartline is still coaching Ohio State in the playoffs and will not be at the Cure Bowl.  Accordingly, USF elevated defensive line coach Kevin Patrick as interim coach for this one game.  Patrick is on his third stint as an assistant at USF having starting his coaching career with the Bulls way back in 1996.  He has been a position coach his entire career and this will be his first (and maybe only?) game as a head coach.  This is Patrick's big moment and he will give it his all.

Patrick will run an offense very similar to ODU's.  The Bull's employ the wide splits offense, emphasizing a strong rushing attack with a focus on explosive plays, receiver movement, and RPOs.  Just like ODU's Colton Joseph, USF's offense was centered on an explosive dual-threat quarterback, Byrum Brown.  Also, like Joseph, Brown is sitting out the bowl game.  He will be on the sideline to coach his backup Gaston Moore.  Moore is a grad transfer from Tennessee.  He saw very limited playing time.  Over five seasons, he has thrown for 347 yards, scored three touchdowns and thrown three interceptions.  His 5.1 average yards per attempt leaves a little bit to be desired for Bulls fans. But he's never had a start, so it's unlikely he has ever had a real chance to air it out.  And while this will be his first start, it will also be the last game of Moore's collegiate career.  Like Patrick, this is Moore's big moment and he will give it his all.  

When Brown was under center, the USF offense was one of the best in the entire country averaging 500.6 yards per game (2nd in all FBS) and 43 points per game (2nd in all FBS).  It was a balanced approach running and passing.  They have a stable of running backs that contributed to Brown's rushing efforts.  Not including Brown's stats, the Bulls have rushed for 1,697 and 15 touchdowns.  They also have talented receivers with Keshaun Singleton catching 50 passes for 877 yards and eight touchdowns.  Freshman Jeremiah Koger caught 34 passes and scored seven times.  All in all, this was an explosive offense.  But can it be as explosive without Byrum Brown and most of its offensive coaching staff?  Unlikely. Brown accounted for 69% of USF's offensive production.  He is a huge loss that cannot be replaced easily.  With him missing, defensive coordinator Blake Seiler and the Monarchs' defense should be able to limit this offense to less than their 43-points average.  The Monarchs defense has been very good overall against the run and the pass allowing only 331.4 yards per game (2nd in SBC) and 19.3 points per game (2nd in SBC).  The defense is fully intact with no opt outs.  Seniors Kris Trinidad, Botros Alisandro, and Seth Naotala may be playing their last collegiate game, and they will be hungry. 

The Cure Bowl will be Kris Trinidad's last game as a Monarch. Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

It was really difficult for the Bulls' defense to match their offense's success but they have been somewhat impressive in their own right.  They sport an average AAC defense allowing 386.8 yards per game (7th in AAC) and 23.3 points per game (5th in AAC).  They often allow a lot more passing yards than rushing yards per game but that is not due to lack of talent.  Opponents were often trying and failing to keep up with the Bulls' high-powered offense and passing when playing from behind.  Having said that, the defense is very good against the run allowing only 3.6 yard per carry (2nd in AAC).  First Team All-Conference linebacker Mac Harris is a versatile, high-energy "do-it-all" defender.  This year, he leads his team in tackles (100), sacks (six), and interceptions (tied with two).  With Harris leading the show, this defense can be an elite G5 defense at times.  However, the defense was very confused by Navy's triple option offense allowing the Midshipmen to rush for 338 yards in a loss.  Then it had the opposite problem against Memphis allowing the Tigers to throw for 307 yards in another loss.  The offense did its job in both of those games, but the defense buckled causing USF two losses that cost them a chance at the conference and CFP.

The Monarchs' offense can play well against this defense.  As all Monarch fans know by now, Colton Joseph will be entering the transfer portal and sitting out of the bowl game.  OC Kevin Decker announced that Quinn Henicle will get his second start of his career and his first since starting against Arkansas State to end the 2024 season.  There, he completed 9-of-12 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns.  On the ground he had 19 carries for 206 yards and two more touchdowns to beat the Red Wolves.  His 92-yard touchdown run was the longest run in ODU history at that time and is still the longest run by a quarterback.  The Sun Belt named him the Offensive Player of the Week.  Expect the Monarchs to use Henicle in many RPO's with running backs Devin Roche and Bull Hargrove.  Henicle should have a lot of yards on the ground.  ODU's offense excels in running the football averaging 236.9 rushing yards per game (2nd in SBC).  Running the ball above its average might be the key to winning this game.

Quinn Henicle is ready to air it out.  Photo Courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

Prediction:  ODU 35, USF 28 The guys and I did very well predicting Old Dominion games.  That is because we were right picking ODU to win.  Vegas, Mike, and Gary remain in the lead with a 10-2 record.  Aaron, the Monarchs themselves and I are right behind with a 9-3 record.  Vegas opened by picking the Bulls by 7.5 points.  But after Byrum Brown announced his opt out, the line has shrunk dramatically.  All of the Monarchists are picking the Monarchs to win and for Rahne to get his first bowl victory.

When I wrote the rough draft for this blog, I initially picked USF to win.  I just really disliked the matchups.  USF's star explosive quarterback was playing and ODU's star explosive quarterback was not.  But then I read about the departures of USF's offensive coaching staff.  Golesh took offensive coordinator/QB coach Joel Gordon, offensive coordinator/wide receiver Kodi Burns, and line coach Tyler Hudanack with him to Auburn.  Assistant linebackers coach Brad Wilson also joined the exodus.   To make matters worse, Byrum Brown announced his opt out and is coaching instead.  The game will be played with a veteran unit, but that is a lot of shake up with a skeleton coaching staff.  Finally, when it comes to quarterbacks, Quinn Henicle has scored more touchdowns in one game than Gaston Moore has over five seasons.  Moore is also not a dual threat like Byrum Brown, simplifying the game for the defense.

YOUR absence at this game will be noted if you miss it!  This is the most important football game ODU has played in since 2016's Bahamas Bowl.  Can't make it to Florida?  That is no excuse.  Come watch it on the big screen at the ODU/JMU basketball game at the Ted.  JMU has graciously accepted our request to move the tipoff time back to 8 PM.  This allows fans to enter the stadium at 4:30 PM and watch the Cure Bowl on the jumbotron.  YOU MUST HAVE A BASKETBALL TICKET TO ENTER.  If you are not going to Orlando, you better come to the Ted to watch the football Monarchs win their bowl game and basketball Monarchs beat the vassals in the Royal Rivalry!  It could be a really fun day for Old Dominion sports.  Reign on!