Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern: Preview and Prediction

By David Asbury

Heading Down South
The Old Dominion Monarchs (7-3) will travel to Statesboro, Georgia to face the Georgia Southern Eagles (5-5) on Saturday with a 1 PM kickoff time and airing on ESPN+.  The Monarchs are looking to continue their winning streak and enter bowl season on the right foot.  Whereas the Eagles are attempting to keep their bowl hopes alive and need just one more win to clinch eligibility.  The Eagles lead the series 3-2, dating back to the 2011 and 2012 FCS playoffs where they knocked out the Taylor Heinicke-led Monarchs twice.  But since rejoining in the Sun Belt, the Monarchs are 2-1 against the Eagles.  Most recently, Rahne's Monarchs thrashed them 47-19 last season.  The Monarchs now have a golden opportunity to even the series against this Clay Helton led-team.

Helton is in the middle of his fourth season coaching Southern.  He continued the programs move away from the run-heavy triple option offense to the more pass-friendly multiple offensive scheme.  In 2024, he had his first winning season with an 8-5 record.  For that reason, the administration gave him a five-year extension through the 2029 season.  The deal reached in February, includes a raise to an average of $1 million per year plus incentives for bowl appearances and victories.  However, some loud online fans feel the extension was undeserved.  They point to the mixed results of 2022 (6-7) and 2023 (6-7).  They also cite the lack of a bowl victory.  Furthermore, Helton's defenses have routinely underperformed their Sun Belt peers.  The critics are getting louder this year with a 5-5 record and the defense remaining their weakness.  The latest win against Coastal Carolina is giving the team life but Helton needs at least one more regular season win and then a bowl victory if he wants to silence the critics.

Junior quarterback JC French is in his second starting season for the Georgia Southern Eagles.  Last year he gained 2,831 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  This season, he is gaining similar numbers with 2,293 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.  He is doing slightly better going down the field with an 7.5 yards per attempt average.  French is not a dual threat like Carlos Del Rio-Wilson or Alonza Barnett, but he can get some yards on the ground when he needs to.  So far this season he has gained 232 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns.  Overall, French is an average Sun Belt quarterback with the 8th best conference quarterback rating (140.0).  Given his abilities, the ODU D should have a good day against JC French.  The Monarchs have been very good against the pass allowing on average 185.4 yards per game (3rd in SBC) and only 6.4 yards per attempt (2nd in SBC).  French will be okay but he will not be able to put up crazy numbers.

Last year, French threw for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception against the Old Dominion defense. Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

The Eagles are grappling for a bowl game and the offense has been keeping them alive in that fight.  Southern averages an impressive 30 points per game (6th in SBC) and 403.5 yards per game (6th in SBC).  The Eagles' O has weapons on the ground and in the air.  Specifically, running back OJ Arnold is having himself a very good season.  He currently leads the Sun Belt in rushing yards with 884 and is averaging an insane 6.8 yards per carry.  He has scored five touchdowns thus far.  Which may seem low compared to star wide receiver Camden Brown.  Brown just broke the school record for single-season touchdown catches (currently 12 and counting).  He is third in the Sun Belt for receiving yards (872).  Given these weapons and good offensive line play, the Eagles have a good balanced offense.  The ODU defense is good against the run and the pass and will likely limit the Eagles' offense to below their season averages, but this team's offense will present lots of challenges for the Monarchs.

Running back OJ Arnold (22) stuffed by the ODU defense. Arnold gained only 36 yards against Old Dominion last season.  Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

While the Eagles' offense has been pretty good, the defense has been pretty bad.  In fact, there is nothing pretty about this defense.  Southern allows 465.9 yards per game (last in SBC, 134th in FBS).  While they are struggling to stop the pass (245.1 passing yards allowed per game, 12th in SBC), they are really struggling against the run (220.8 rushing yards per game, last in SBC, 135th in FBS).  Teams have been running all over this defense.  The Eagles are allowing a league-worst 5.6 rushing yards per carry and have given up 28 rushing touchdowns.  The only highlights on this unit may be defensive lineman MJ Stroud who leads the team in sacks (5.5, 2nd in SBC) and linebacker Brendan Harrington who leads the team in tackles (70, 10th in SBC).  If Old Dominion's offense was good against Troy's stout defense, then it should make very short work of Georgia Southern's.  Expect another game where ODU's group of running backs have BIG games.  Running backs Devin Roche and Trequan Jones should eat.

Overall, the Georgia Southern Eagles team disappointed most preseason prognosticators, myself included.  With so much production returning, many believed they would compete with JMU for the Sun Belt East.  They have been far from that with an average 5-5 record.  Instead, the Eagles are just trying their best to go bowling to justify Helton's contract extension.  One more win and they can go to a bowl to give Helton a chance to get his first bowl victory with this team.  However, if they lose to ODU this week, they will have to travel to Huntington, WV to compete against Marshall for their last chance at eligibility.  Good luck to them in their senior year.

Prediction:  ODU 41, Ga. So. 24
Not all of us thought ODU would dominate Troy like they did last week but we did all pick Old Dominion to win.  Mike, Gary, and Las Vegas are tied at 8-2 in their predictions.  Aaron, the Monarchs themselves, and I are right behind at 7-3.  It looks like the standings may remain a one-game difference to close the regular season.  It comes as no surprise that we are all picking Ol' Dirty to keep the winning streak alive and take care of business against the Eagles.  Vegas favors Old Dominion by 10.5 points.

The Old Dominion Monarchs are just a better team in every aspect of the game.  Sure, the Georgia Southern Eagles have a good offense with a solid running back and star wide receiver.  Their quarterback is not a problem for them either.  But at the end of the day, it is an average Sun Belt offense going up against a top-three Sun Belt defense.  On top of that, the Old Dominion offense should cut through this defense like butter.  They could have multiple running backs have career days.    The Monarchs will score and score often.  They will also stop the Southern defense from scoring enough to get a relatively comfortable victory.

The game will be broadcasted on ESPN+ at 1 PM but you do not have to watch it alone!  Afterglow is having another watch party.  If you do not want to drive all the way down to Statesboro, Georgia, you should be attending with friends from The Pride of ODU and Monarchists!  Enjoy wonderful beer while watching our Monarchs beat up on the Eagles.  I will see you there!