Old Dominion vs. James Madison: Preview and Prediction

By David Asbury

Royal Rivalry for the East
This Saturday at 3:30 on ESPNU, the Monarchs face-off with their archrival, the damn rebellious vassals from Harrisonburg.  ESPN elevated this rivalry game to national television after ODU thrashed Coastal Carolina.  Although the Monarchs suffered a humbling loss in Marshall last week, it is still a very big game with East Division implications.  A win here and the Monarchs are still alive to win the Sun Belt, maybe even frontrunners.  But beating the rival would be a milestone all on its own.  Old Dominion is 0-3 against Madison since reuniting in the Sun Belt and 2-3 all time.  It has been 13 years since the Monarchs beat the Dukes and the losing streak must end now.

Dukes' Head Coach Bob Chesney (14-5) leads a very talented squad.  The JMU Dukes are currently 5-1 (3-0) coming off a big win against conference mate Louisiana.  Their sole loss was to ACC member Louisville (4-1).  Despite being one of the better, if not the best team in the conference, they still have yet to win a Sun Belt title or even win the Sun Belt East*.  That is an achievement they want this year.  Moreover, with only one loss to a P4 school Madison is still alive for the College Football Playoffs as a longshot.  They have big aspirations and the talent to match it.  But the team cannot overlook Old Dominion.

The vassals are led by quarterback Alonza Barnett.  Last year in Norfolk, Barnett threw for 192 yards, ran for 70 yards and scored three total touchdowns in a 35-32 win.  This season, he started off slow (returning from injury) with Chesney going between Barnett and his backup, Matthew Sluka, who was used mostly as a wildcat QB.  Chesney has since gone away from that bizarre 2 QB set up and Barnett has reminded fans why he is the starter. He has completed 60.3% of his passes for 957 yards, with seven touchdowns through the air and another five touchdowns on the ground.  But his average per attempt has decreased this season, from 7.3 yards to 6.1.  There is no drop off in his completion percentage, which means he is opting for shorter (safer) throws this season. This year 42.9% of his passes are between 0 and 9 yards from the LOS and 21.8% of his passes are behind the LOS, good for 64.7% of his throws. That number was 56.9% last year. A significant increase towards more dink and dunk offense.

The Monarchs almost always struggle against running quarterbacks and they are well aware of what Barnett is capable of from last year.  However, since returning from injury, he has not seen the same amount of success on the ground and has not tucked and run as often. His rushing attempts per game is 5.6, down from 7.8. And his yards per attempt is 3.5, down from 6.1 in 2024. He has 113 yards on the ground this year, reaching the endzone five times.  Regardless, the Monarchs will need to contain him and force him to stay in the pocket and make plays with his arm.

Barnett had a very good game against the Monarchs in 2024 despite this amazing photo. Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

Barnett's offense has stumbled a bit this season and struggled mightily against a weak Georgia State two weeks ago.  But it is still a top Sun Belt O.  They average 400.3 yards per game (4th in SBC).    Although they are struggling to pass the ball (167.8 yards per game, 11th in SBC), they are excelling running the ball (232.5 yards per game, 3rd in SBC).  The Dukes average 5.2 yards per carry (4th in SBC).  And it comes as no surprise that their stable of talented backs can run the rock well behind a very good offensive line.  Wayne Knight (no relation to the guy eaten in Jurassic Park) has been the bell cow so far with 537 yards and four touchdowns.  He has another 138 yards in the air with Barnett checking down to him a lot.  The key to stopping this team will be to stop the run, contain Barnett, and force him to throw.  The Monarchs run defense has been average (174.8 rushing yards per game, 7th in SBC).  So that is a tall task.  But even if they succeed, there is still the danger of wide receiver Landon Ellis who has 19 catches for 303 yards and five touchdowns.  ODU can beat this offense, but they need to play their best game.

But can ODU beat their defense?  It is elite.   It is by far the best defense in the entire Sun Belt allowing only 229 yards par game (1st in SBC), 155 passing yards per game (1st in SBC), 74 rushing yards per game (1st in SBC), and only 13.7 points per game (1st in SBC).  Yeah, you read that correctly.  1st, 1st, 1st, 1st.  ODU's pass blocking will need to step up as the Dukes are racking up sacks (17, 2nd in SBC).   Notre Dame-transfer defensive end Aiden Gobaira has three sacks so far and so does star linebacker Trent Hendrick.  Hendrick and fellow linebacker Gannon Weathersby are cleaning up the run combining for 75 tackles.  That overpowering pass rush has led to the secondary playing lights out.  They are preventing completions with the lowest completion percentage allowed in the Sun Belt (51.6%).  Safety Jacob Thomas is shining with two interceptions, one forced fumble, four pass deflected, and 27 tackles.  This might be the best defense the Monarchs face all season. 

But have they faced an offense like ODU's yet?  Colton Joseph is having a SBC Player of the Year type of season, and last season he scored three touchdowns on this team.  It is the best in the Sun Belt (488.5 yards per game, 1st in SBC).  This ODU O versus JMU D is a battle between goliaths.

 
Star safety Jacob Thomas misses Colton Joseph, allowing a touchdown. Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

Overall, the damn vassals are just as good as ever.  After ODU's loss last week, they are the frontrunners to win the conference.  Their offense needs a little bit of work but so far it has done well enough to get them to 5 and 1.  But their defense... it is the best in the conference and 6th best in the country by total yards allowed.  If ODU does not win this game, the Dukes are able to run the table and represent the East in the Sun Belt title game.  This is a HUGE matchup with HUGE conference implications.  You do not want to miss this game!  Travel to Harrisonburg if you can!  Watch from Afterglow if you cannot!

Prediction: ODU 28, JMU 23
We all took a beating last week with the loss to Marshall, including Vegas.  Mike is now 5-1, while Aaron, Gary, Las Vegas and I are all 4-2.  I did believe Marshall would cover the spread so Vegas has the most egg on its face.  This week, Gary and Vegas are picking James Madison. Vegas currently has the spread very close at 2.5 points but there has been lots of movement.  2.5 points is really just the difference of homefield advantage.  It is interesting because ESPN is barely favoring the Monarchs with a 53.5% chance to win and it is pretty rare for Vegas and ESPN to disagree.  Aaron, Mike and I are not going to jump off the lion just yet.  We're riding with Ol' Dirty to win its first Royal Rivalry game since 2012.

Granted, this is a tough game to predict and I have gone back and forth many times.  The Dukes are good and the Monarchs just collapsed in West Virginia.  But last week's game was a little fluky with all of the uncharacteristic turnovers.  I believe Ricky Rahne and his staff will have this team refocused and they will avoid the same mistakes.  So, I am not giving up on them.  They can have a get-right game and there are none better to do it in than this year's Royal Rivalry.  This also gives me a chance to jump Vegas in the standings.  Since I began picking ODU games, I have always beaten Vegas.  With Vegas doubting us in a close match, I want to seize the opportunity to jump ahead.

The damn vassals are scary good but you know what?  So are the Monarchs.  The Dukes' defense is solid but they have not faced an offense like Old Dominions and the Monarch defense is no slouch either.  It is right behind JMU's defense (2nd in SBC for yards and points allowed per game).  All five of JMU's victories have come from teams with losing records.  Liberty (2-4) and Louisiana (2-4) are both suffering down years for their programs.  Georgia Southern's (2-4) defense is atrociously bad.  And Georgia State (1-5) is Georgia State.  The only quality opponent they faced was Louisville and they lost 28-14.  You can criticize ODU's schedule similarly but at the end of the day, ODU played a stronger strength of schedule so far.  The Monarchs won their match against a P4 team on the road, the vassals have not.  I am predicting a tight match where Old Dominion's offense and defense both play just well enough to win by a single score.

*In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, under Coach Cignetti, JMU did end up with the best record in the East. However, this was during their FCS-to-FBS transition period and they weren't eligible to play in the conference championship or in a bowl game. So, they have never officially been crown the East Division champs by the Sun Belt Conference.