Old Dominion vs. Marshall: Preview and Prediction

By David Asbury

Sixth times a charm?
The Old Dominion Monarchs travel to Huntington, West Virginia to take on the Marshall Thundering Herd.  The game this Saturday will start at 3:30 PM and be broadcasted on ESPN+.  In five games in Huntington, the Monarchs have never won and are a putrid 1-9 against the Herd since the series began in 2014.  ODU's only win in the series came in 2016 at home, where ODU had one of its best seasons and won the Bahamas Bowl.  The Monarchs have to turn this series around and winning in Huntington would be a new milestone all on its own.  I am very tired of losing to this team.  There is no better opportunity than this season as the Herd is in the midst of a rebuilding year.  But it is possible that through six weeks and coming off of a bye week that they have finally found their groove and will be tougher competition than many are predicting.

Head Coach Tony Gibson is brand new at Marshall and recently served as NC State's defensive coordinator.  This season he takes over a brand new Marshall squad that looks very different from last year's championship team.  The season started out a little shaky with the new roster.  First, Georgia expectedly spanked Marshall 45-7.  Then, FBS newcomer Missouri State upset Marshall 21-20.  The Herd did manage to defeat their FCS team handedly, as well as the struggling MTSU Blue Raiders.  Finally, Marshall built off of those two wins and took a large lead against Louisiana but blew it, losing in double overtime 54-51.  The Marshall Thundering Herd now sit at 2-3, which is already as many losses as they suffered all of last season (10-3) but they look better on the field than what some have expected.

After shaky experiments at quarterback, the Herd found their guy with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson under center.  The Syracuse-transfer has a very impressive 78.5% completion percentage, throwing for 9 touchdowns, 637 yards and no interceptions.  He is a dual threat quarterback that can beat you with his legs. He gained 81 yards on 21 carries against Louisiana.  But these impressive stats are from a limited sample size as he only had meaningful playing time in the last three games; EKU, MTSU, and UL.  He has not faced any strong defenses this season.  ODU will be a real test for him and likewise he will be a real test for the Monarchs.  Historically, ODU has struggled against running quarterbacks and if Del Rio-Wilson is the real deal then he could absolutely surprise the ODU defense with big plays.

Offensively, they have been doing well enough gaining 361.8 yards per game (8th in SBC).  A lot of that has been on the ground with 192.84 rushing yards per game (6th in SBC).  The success on the ground and defensive turnovers are translating into a lot of offensive points (31.6, 3rd in SBC).  Similar to ODU, the Herd is running well with running backs and quarterbacks.  Running back Michael Allen transferred in from UNLV and leads the Herd in yards (273) and touchdowns (3).  He is averaging a good 5.8 yards per carry.  But the Herd are not staying away from the air either.  Wide receiver Demarcus Lacey and tight end Toby Payne combine for 32 catches, 401 yards and five touchdowns.  The Monarchs need to prepare for a dual threat quarterback and be prepared to stop the run and pass.   This Marshall offense might be the best offense the Monarchs have faced since Indiana in Week 1.  But there is a weakness:  sacks.  The Herd have allowed 12 sacks this season, fifth most in the conference.  The ODU defense has 14 sacks thus far and should get more this game.

Center Eric Meeks (57) and tight end Toby Payne (81) are almost all that return from last year's championship team. Photo courtesy of CB Sports Photography.

The Marshall defense appears to be a good run D on paper, limiting teams to only 134.8 yards per game (4th in SBC). But if you look a little deeper, there are signs that the small sample size is impacting the average in a big way. Their best performances came against Missouri State and Eastern Kentucky (essentially 2 FCS programs) where they limited them to 2.3 yards per carry and 0.4 yards per carry respectively.  And that solid total yards per game average, well MTSU only ran the ball 15 times in a game where they averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Their most recent game, against a Louisiana team with injuries to 5 of their offensive tackles and the lead running back, saw the Herd struggle in the run game. They allowed 5.7 yards per carry and 264 yards on the day with QB Lunch Winfield getting 129 yards on 13 carries (9.9 ypc), showing their weakness in the run game could be a mobile QB like our own Colton Joseph. 

Linebacker Kerion Martin leads the team with 31 tackles on the season, 16 solo and 15 assisted.  For a team with so many newcomers, it is noteworthy that Martin is not really a newcomer.  The WV-native spent 2024 at Youngstown State but played at Marshall from 2020-2023.  Martin and the Herd defense hope to contain ODU's Trequan Jones and Colton Joseph on the ground but good luck to him in his senior year.  This defense has not faced a running game like ODU's all season and the Monarchs will almost certainly beat that 134 rushing yards per game marker.

But there is worse news for the Herd's defense.  They are having trouble with the passing game, allowing teams to throw for 244.8 yards per game (11th in SBC).  Quarterbacks are averaging a healthy 8.2 yards per attempt (12th in SBC).  With such an opportunity, Colton Joseph might have another SBC Player of the Year performance in the air with a lot of yards and touchdowns.  He still needs to give maximum effort because the Herd are allowing big plays but they are also making big plays.  Marshall tie JMU with the most sacks in the conference (15).  They are also nabbing interceptions.  Specifically, defensive back Boogie Trotter is a ball hawk and leads the Sun Belt with three interceptions.  If the Monarchs' offense play their best game, they will score a lot.  But any drop off from their average and mistakes (interceptions and sacks) can pile on.

Could Marshall compete with ODU and JMU in the Sun Belt East?  Probably not.  This Marshall team is not the same championship team from a year ago.  It is a rebuilding year.  But could they reach six wins and go to a bowl game?  Yes.  The way quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, the running game, and the defensive line are playing, they might just be alright.  The Herd frankly look much better than many other Sun Belt teams including Coastal Carolina, Georgia State and Georgia Southern.  This is a solid 5-7 or 6-6 team and a potential trap game for the Monarchs.

Prediction:  ODU 38, Marshall 27
All of the Monarchists and Vegas picked ODU to win last week and boy did they crush the Radioactive Beach Chickens.  That was a pretty easy prediction with how Coastal has looked thus far.  Mike is in the lead at 5-0.  Gary, Aaron, Vegas, the Monarchs themselves, and I are all 4-1.  We are all still riding the lion and picking the Monarchs this week.  Vegas predicts Old Dominion to win by 14.5 points as I write this.

On paper, the Herd do not look that bad.  Marshall's offense is scoring a lot of points and the defense is good at generating sacks and forcing turnovers.  But outside of Georgia, they ain't played nobody Paaaawwwll.  Beating MTSU and EKU are not impressive wins and this ODU team will be much stiffer competition than either of those teams.  So, it is doubtful Marshall's strengths can shine through this game.  Moreover, the Herd's biggest weakness is the passing defense and that is a matchup nightmare because they face the best quarterback in the Sun Belt with arguably the most talented receiving corps in the league.  Colton Joseph is likely to have another big day, a bigger day than Carlos Del Rio-Wilson on the other sideline.  So, I am predicting a high scoring matchup with both quarterbacks playing well but I have the Monarchs winning by at least two scores.  Let's get that first win in West Virginia.