Troy vs. Old Dominion: Preview and Prediction

By David Asbury

SportsCenter Starts Right Now
This Thursday night, football fans from all around the country will be tuning in to ESPN proper and getting a glimpse of the Castle.  What else would they watch, the 2-7 Jets on Amazon Prime?  Nope. America is much better off watching the 6-3 Troy Trojans take on the 6-3 Old Dominion Monarchs for some Fun Belt action.  The two bowl-eligible teams are looking to increase their win total on the national stage with a lot on the line.  Troy (4-1 in SBC) will be trying to keep up with USM (5-0) for the SBC West title.  Meanwhile, the Monarchs will want that elusive seventh win to accomplish the first winning season since 2016.  With so much on the line, Military Appreciation Night, a spectacular drone show, and SportsCenter broadcasting live from Kaufman Mall, PACK THE CASTLE for an awesome show on the turf and bring toys for the kids!

This is our annual Toys for Tots game, a Monarchists tradition that ODU fans have embraced. There will be collection sites in the Blue Lot and on 49th Street. And if you'd like to donate money, you can do so online or bring cash to give the Marines who will be walking around with ammo cans. We always want to support this amazing charity the best way possible and we hope you will help us do that. All the toys are donated to kids who in the 757, so we are helping make Christmas great for kids who may be future Monarchs. Now, back to the actual game.

Troy is a very good opponent.  Under Jon Sumrall, Troy won the Sun Belt Championship in 2022 and 2023.  In 2024, Tulane poached Sumrall (who now might get poached by LSU).  In turn, Troy hired the Notre Dame Offensive Coordinator, Gerard Parker to take the reins.  Parker had a 4-8 rebuilding year in '24 but is having a stellar second season.  At 6-3, Troy's losses include Clemson and Memphis, two very good non-conference teams and Arkansas State, a pretty decent SBC West school. Troy's Trojan Wall Defense is keeping this team in every game.

At quarterback, Goose Crowder has been battling injuries for the second season in a row.  Backup Tucker Kilcrease has been taking snaps under center and is having a very up and down season.  Against Texas State, he threw for 415 yards and five touchdowns.  The conference named him the SBC Player of the Week.  But against a weak Arkansas State defense,  Kilcrease threw for only 166 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.  Likewise, he can take off on his legs and get yards on the ground gaining 94 rushing yards against South Alabama.  But he also gets sacked a lot, earning him -27 total rushing yards against Arkansas State.  In fact, he is the most sacked player in the entire Sun Belt, taking 26 sacks so far this season.  Accordingly, expect ODU's Jeremy Mack and Jahleel Culbreath to make a few stunts and increase their sack numbers.  But which Kilcrease will show up in Norfolk?  He could excel or he could crumble.  Or will he even get much playing time at all?  Gerard Parker says Goose Crowder is healthy and will play.  Parker said, “He’ll certainly be cleared and available this week and he will play. What that looks like and all those things, I still wouldn’t say that I know that. I don’t think that you can plan all that out, but both quarterbacks will play. We’re excited to welcome him back to us and continue just to do the right thing for our football team, take the steps that we want to be at the end of the year. So he will play this week.”

The Troy offense is slacking a bit.  They gain 324.2 yards per game (12th in SBC).  The Trojans are really suffering running the ball only gaining 121.1 rushing yards.  But their defense is keeping the offense in games and setting them up with shorter fields allowing them to score some points (27 per game, 7th in SBC).  The running game is lead by Tae Meadows who has 546 yards, four touchdowns and averages a pretty good 4.8 yards per carry.  So, a lot of this poor rushing attack is from yards lost from sacks.  Meanwhile, receivers Tray Taylor and RaRa Thomas combine for 41 catches, six touchdowns, and 709 yards.  So, it appears this offense would be pretty good if only they could stop getting sacked.

The Trojan's defense can be a brick wall.  It is second in the conference in yards allowed (356.7) and third in the conference in points allowed (23.4).  It is also worth noting that the defense is helped by the best punting game in the conference (45.8 net yards per punt).  The Trojans are solid against the run and pass.  Linebacker Jordan Stringer (83) and safety Devin Lafayette (77) are tackling machines, ranked second and fourth in Sun Belt tackles respectively.  Meanwhile Donnie Smith leads the conference in sacks with six.  In fact, the Trojans' 24 sacks is the most in the Sun Belt.  Zack Barlev and the rest of the offensive line need to play their best game and keep Colton Joseph upright and clean to avoid turnovers.

In Homer's Illiad, the city of Troy was defending itself behind its walls to the point where the Greeks could only score points using trickery.  The city of Troy had little offense against the Greeks.  Troy football is similar.  They have one of the best Sun Belt defenses, just behind JMU's elite defense, but one of the Sun Belt's worst offenses.

Prediction:  ODU 28, Troy 21
We all picked the Monarchs to dominate ULM and everyone rose in the standings.  Mike, Gary, and Vegas are still tied now at 7-2.  Aaron, the Monarchs themselves, and I are right behind at 6-3.  This week, we are all picking the Monarchs to extend their winning streak and obtain their first winning season since 2016 on national television.  Vegas favors the Monarchs by 10.5  points.

I like Vegas favoring ODU, but 10 points seems excessive with how good this Troy defense is.  The ODU offense versus the Troy defense is a battle of goliaths.  Colton Joseph will take some hits against Troy's top-tier front seven.  But the Troy offense is not carrying its weight.  The ODU defense is right up there with JMU and Troy, it will be the difference in this game.  That, and the Monarchs are an undefeated 4-0 at home this season.  The Castle should be bumping for this nationally televised game.  Both teams may be coming off of a bye week but Ricky Rahne really excels when he gets extra time to prepare.  If it is anything like last year's Thursday Night Game, where ODU crushed Georgia Southern, then it should be a show!  Get there, get loud, stay loud!  Go Monarchs!